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Table of contents

Since then, computers have become far better at chess than humans. In , two experts in artificial intelligence used truck driving as an example of a job that would be really hard to automate. But today, self-driving cars are already on the road. In , Professor Bostrom predicted that it would take ten years for a computer to beat the top human player at the ancient Chinese game of Go. But it was achieved in March by Google DeepMind.

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In the past, we mostly had to give computers detailed instructions for every task. Today, we have programs that teach themselves how to achieve a goal. The same algorithm that can play Space Invaders below has also learned to play about 50 other arcade games. Due to this, many experts think human-level artificial intelligence could easily happen in our lifetimes.

Here is a survey of of the most cited AI scientists: Admittedly, they are very uncertain, but high uncertainty also means it could arrive sooner rather than later. You can read much more about when human-level AI might happen here. Why is this important? Gorillas are faster than us, stronger than us, and have a more powerful bite.

But there are only , gorillas in the wild, compared to seven billion humans, and their fate is up to us. Right now, computers are only smarter than us in limited ways e. This transition could be hugely positive, or hugely negative. On the one hand, just as the industrial revolution automated manual labour, the AI revolution could automate intellectual labour, unleashing unprecedented economic growth. What happens to humanity after its invention would be up to it.

So we need to make sure the AI system shares our goals, and we only get one chance to get the transition right. This, however, is not easy. No-one knows how to code moral behaviour into a computer. Within computer science, this is known as the alignment problem. The number of full-time researchers at or beyond the postdoc level working directly on the control problem is under 30 as of early , making it some times more neglected than biosecurity.

At the same time, there is momentum behind this work. In the last five years, the field has gained academic and industry support, 20 such as a leading author of AI textbooks, Stuart Russell, and Stephen Hawking, as well as major funders, like the groundbreaking entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk. This will also be a huge issue for governments. AI policy is fast becoming an important area, but policy-makers are focused on short-term issues like how to regulate self-driving cars and job loss, rather than the key long-term issues i.

You can find out how to contribute in our full profile. These days we spend more time researching machine learning than malaria nets. Our views have changed a great deal over the last eight years, and they could easily change again. We could commit to working on AI or biosecurity, but we might discover something even better in the coming years.

Might there be problems that will definitely be important in the future, despite all our uncertainty? We think these are potentially competitive with AI and biosecurity, and where to focus mainly comes down to personal fit. So this research is hugely valuable. A career in this area could mean working at the Open Philanthropy Project, Future of Humanity Institute, economics academia, think tanks, and elsewhere.

Read more about how to contribute in the full profile. The second strategy is to work on problems that will help us solve lots of other problems. For instance, if we had a more enlightened government, that would help us solve lots of other problems facing future generations. So US governance is highly important if maybe not neglected or tractable.

This consideration brings us full circle.

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Earlier, we argued that rich country issues like education were less urgent than helping the global poor. However, now we can see that from the perspective of future generations, some rich country issues might be more important, due to their long-term effects.

For instance, a more educated population might lead to better governance; or political action in your local community might have an effect on decision-makers in Washington. We did an analysis of the simplest kind of political action — voting — and found that it could be really valuable.

On the other hand, issues like US education and governance already receive a huge amount of attention, which makes them hard to improve.

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Read more about the case against working on US education. We favour more neglected issues with more targeted effects on future generations. For instance, fascinating new research by Philip Tetlock shows that some teams and methods are far better at predicting geopolitical events than others. If the decision-makers in society were informed by much more accurate predictions, it would help them navigate future crises, whatever those turn out to be.

If the situation changes, then at least to some extent the donations will change too. Giving What We Can is one example of several projects in the effective altruism community , a community of people who aim to identify the best ways to help others and take action. This means that every year, thousands of them have far less impact than they could have. We could have gone to work on issues like AI ourselves.

But instead, by providing better advice, we can help thousands of other people find high-impact careers. And so, we can have thousands of times as much impact ourselves. Just like Giving What We Can, this flexibility gives us greater impact over time. This is because they work one level removed from the concrete problems that seem most urgent. Find out more about promoting effective altruism.

You can read about how we came up with the scores here. Take the scores with a fist full of salt. The assessment of problems also greatly depends on value judgements and debatable empirical questions, so we expect people will disagree with our ranking. To help, we made a tool that asks you some key questions, then re-ranks the problems based on your answers. Finally, factor in personal fit. So this could easily change your personal ranking. Despite all the uncertainties, your choice of problem might be the single biggest decision in determining your impact.

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If we rated global problems in terms of how pressing they are, we might intuitively expect them to look like this:. Some problems are far higher-impact than others, because they can differ by 10 or times in terms of how big, neglected and solvable they are, as well as your degree of personal fit.

Using the resources above, write down the three global problems that you think are most pressing for you to work on. Your personal list will depend on your values, empirical assumptions, and personal fit with the areas. For each problem, list out some specific career options you could take that would help the problem. You can get ideas in our profiles , as well as further reading on each area. This list of problems is just a starting point. The next step is to find concrete career options that will make a difference within the area, which we cover in the next article, then to find an option with excellent personal fit, which we also cover later.

No time now? Search for:. You're reading our old career guide. Read our key ideas series.

Apply this to your own career Using the resources above, write down the three global problems that you think are most pressing for you to work on. Part 6: Which careers are highest impact?

Design Thinking for Social Innovation

Like Tweet Share Email Print. Notes and references "Us" refers to the 80, Hours team. It was at this point he started to actively think about this question, which is why we say "8 years", even though 80, Hours was only founded in Will and Toby had been thinking about these issues for longer. Also note that a large fraction of government spending goes into education and health, so those who go into government are also contributing to these areas. So of these , i. Archived link , retrieved Febuary Briefly, the data for percentiles 1 to 79 were taken from PovcalNet : the on-line tool for poverty measurement developed by the Development Research Group of the World Bank.

Note that this is in fact a measure of consumption , which closely tracks income and is the standard way of tracking the wealth of people towards the lower part of the distribution. In , the official poverty rate was There were Neither the poverty rate nor the number of people in poverty were statistically different from the estimates Figure 4 and Table 3. This is the most recent data we're aware of, as of March Archived link , retrieved March Archived pdf , retrieved February Archived link , retrieved 2-March US welfare Estimates of welfare spending vary depending on exactly what is included.

Total spending also varies from year to year. All wars, democides, and politically motivated famines killed an estimated million to million people during the 20th century, or an average of 1. International humanitarian aid has contributed substantially to reductions in the number of annual deaths from disease. In the DCP2 in total, the interventions are spread over more than four orders of magnitude, ranging from 0. Thus, moving money from the least effective intervention to the most effective would produce about 15, times the benefit, and even moving it from the median intervention to the most effective would produce about 60 times the benefit.